I awoke this morning to discover the Thai army had taken over its own country, declaring martial law in the Kingdom. Needless to say, I was shocked. And surprised. Just four days ago General Prayut Chan-O-Cha announced if the political problems that have resulted in 28 deaths and hundreds wounded over the last few months did not settle down soon, the boys in green would have to step in to bring peace to the land. So my surprise was not that the army moved in but that they’d only waited four days before doing so. Usually it takes six days minimum for those types of announcements to become reality. And my shock was that the self-professed experts on Thailand who post to the gay Thailand message boards were so shocked themselves. I assumed everyone understood how official announcements work in the Kingdom. They never come out of the blue. That’d be rude. There’s always a pre-announcement announcement that alerts everyone to what’s coming. So they don’t look stupid and caught unaware when it actually hits. Rioting in the streets is one thing, causing someone to lose face is a much more serious matter.

The good news is that Jabba The Butt says Pattaya is not impacted and remains the hot bed of lawlessness it has always been. Which is comforting to know. That the country may be torn asunder from civil unrest is a scary thought. That there may be a few less boys selling their bodies in Sunee Plaza, on the other hand, would mean the end of time is near.

I know the board pundits relish pointing out how undemocratic Thailand’s democracy is, but when February’s elections were voided because of voting irregularities and with the Election Commission now saying the do-over scheduled for July 20 is no longer possible because of the continuing unrest, you have to figure that means it’s time for someone to step in. And historically, in Thailand, that peace keeper has always been the military. You can’t have a democracy if you can’t hold elections and the inability of the Thai government to do that has been a blight on its international reputation. Even Syria looks to be in line to re-elect Bashar Assad in the middle of its bloody civil war. So that the military has decided to impose its will in Thailand shouldn’t come as such of a surprise. I mean it’s not like the Vietnamese suddenly began rioting in the streets to push the Chinese out of their country. Besides, One Direction has scheduled a concert in Bangkok for next March and the country needs to mend before such a truly important event can be enjoyed by all.

The announcement that martial law had been invoked, which aired on the military-run television station, stressed that the move was not a coup and that the military’s aim was “to restore peace and order for people from all sides”. Which sounds a lot more level-headed than anything the red shirt or yellow shirt leaders have had to say over the last six months. The idea of martial law and a military take-over has Nervous Nellies in a panic. Frankly, that 5 years after his death Michael Jackson just appeared at the Billboard Music Awards is of greater concern to me. And while visions of tanks rolling through Bangkok’s streets seem the preferred picture of what martial law in Thailand will mean, those with feet on the ground report even more horrifying sights. Like army officials standing guard under BTS platforms with humvees parked nearby. You have to assume some lucky Bangkokian, who like many of his fellow citizens stopped to pose for a selfie with one of the boys in green, will be winning a Pulitzer Prize for Photography. Or at least will amass a few hundred Likes when he posts his pix on his FaceBook page.

Of course if you really want to know what’s happening in Thailand and what the imposition of martial law means, you need look no further than the boys on the boards. The thought of armed military at Suvarnabhumi Airport alone is enough to get their panties in a wad. Not that I can blame them. The first time I landed in Spain and was greeted by an armed military presence I too was horrified. Ditto for my arrival in Israel. And Brazil. And Mexico. And The Philippines. Or any country in Africa. Or the Middle East. Not to mention those sinister looking guys in black that have become a fixture at airports in the U.S. But maybe Thailand will take a page from Russia’s playbook and as Putin is doing in Crimea, deny those boys wearing cammies belong to them.

Fortunately, since the army says it will ban the broadcast of news that could “trigger fear among the public” and has taken 11 satellite TV and radio stations off the air (including Bluesky, which is affiliated with the opposition Democrat party) we still have the forums as a rich source of the latest news and happenings as this story develops. Over on Gay Thailand they interrupted a heated discussion about the scarcity of Diet Coke in Thailand to note that a 9:00 curfew has been imposed throughout the country. Wait. This just in. There is no curfew. in fact, General Prayut said he has not thought about imposing a curfew. So, um, never mind.

And while the Iron Fist of Jabba has declared no political discussion or opinions may be posted in his land, he has proven that despite peoples’ belief to the contrary he is capable of changing his mind, if not his lifestyle. Jabba had previously stated his never-ending cut and paste thread on ‘Escalating Protests” would be circumcised when it reached 25 pages in length, but will now be allowed to continue its growth until it becomes appropriate to use his editorial knife at some point in the future, an announcement of which is promised in advance and which we all await with baited breath. ‘Cuz the truly important aspect of Thailand’s continuing political problems is how and when Jabba will deal with it on his board. The question of why, of course, still remains.

Former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra too has been unable to remain silent, taking to Twitter to announce, “I hope no groups violate people’s human rights or further destroy the democratic process.” Which just goes to show you that Thais do in fact appreciate the humor in irony. But over on SGT, the imposition of martial law is not a laughing matter. The miss-statement of referring to it as Marshall Law, however is. And there too as on the other boards, the big concern is how the army’s decision to take over control of the country, or at least Bangkok, will impact visitor’s travelers’ insurance. Not that the various travel warnings issued by numerous governments didn’t already provide the loophole insurance companies needed to screw you out of a claim for an injury attributable to the civil unrest in Thailand. But – in addition to an excuse for Traveler Dave to remind everyone once again he sells insurance – this may be the take on the troubles that best helps explain what is going on in Thailand. And the word for the day (if you don’t get pedantic about it) is Risk Management.

Insurance is a form of risk management, one of three ways you can deal with potential risks. The other two are a) you can ignore the risk – though the ostrich sticking its head in the sand option is not generally considered to be an effective approach to dealing with risk – or b) you can retain the risk, which means you take full responsibility for the cards falling where they may. Purchasing insurance is the most popular way to exercise option c, which is to assign the risk elsewhere. That’s because the insurance industry has convinced the general public their safest bet is to contribute to insurance companies’ bottom line by paying them to assume the risk for them. Or to put it another way, by purchasing insurance you are gambling that the loss you experience by paying premiums will be less than the loss you’d experience if something bad happened to you. Las Vegas operates on the same principle. And ya gotta love that they’ll sell you insurance when the dealer’s upcard is an ace at the blackjack tables too. Because casinos and insurance companies too appreciate the humor in irony.

The risk today that Thailand is facing is often misidentified as a potential for civil war, or a war between the classes ‘cuz that’s a popular scenario in the media these days. Ignoring the unrelated problems in the South (which pretty much everyone not living in the South does), the looming battle between factions is in reality a fight over power and control. Which, of course, means money. Both sides have done a great job at spin-control, couching their respective goals as either a fight for democratic rule (Go Democracy!) or preserving loyalty to the royal family (Long Live The King!) And both have presented their party’s platform in terms easily understood by the masses: you either wear a red or yellow shirt.

The one thing both parties agree on, which no one is allowed to say, is that the glue that has bound the country together for the last eight decades is now 86-years-old, in frail health, and assumed to be not long for the world. The political unrest in Thailand today is not about the current or former prime minister, or party allegiance. It’s about who will get to call the shots when that day finally arrives. And whose bank account will then reign supreme. That day poses a major risk for both parties. And while the events over the last six months – or last six years – may appear to be political maneuvering, it really is nothing more than risk management.

The force in the country that could put an abrupt end to all of the in-fighting with little more than a few well-chosen words has instead, for various reasons, gone with risk management option a: the risk of what will happen to the country when a certain death occurs is being ignored. It’s a very Buddhist-like approach but not one that bodes well for Thailand’s future. Meanwhile, the politicos on both sides of the fence have gone with risk management option b: they recognize the risk and what is at stake but rather than attempt to find a solution that will benefit everyone, they want to retain the risk, feeling they have enough support to deal with the coming crisis on their own. As risk management techniques go, that’s considered a ballsy move. But while the odds are not in their favor, the potential pot to be won is high. And you should never underestimate the human capacity for greed.

That leaves risk management option c, assigning or transferring the risk to a third party, gambling that your resulting loss will be less than what choosing that option will cost you. And that’s where Thailand’s military comes in. Unable to find a middle ground that would benefit both parties, the factions within the country have allowed the military to step in to settle the debate. Temporarily. In this way, neither side loses face, neither side can claim a victory. And the risk is alleviated on their behalf. For now. Neither side is concerned that the military will stage a coup (despite the country’s history favoring that result). The army’s role in the current political crisis is to act as a buffer, to manage the risk by removing it from the shoulders of both political parties involved. So it’s not about martial law, it’s about risk management. Though what the premiums for going with that option will eventually cost is yet to be seen. The benefit is that both parties, after the army cools things down, can go back to posturing and aligning themselves for the top position when things really come to a boil.

Which is a good thing. For now. At least for Thailand’s frequent visitors, sex tourists, and sex pats. ‘Cuz the important thing is not how the future of Thailand will play out, but that the bars will continue to be well-stocked with offable boys. The downside is that with the army restoring peace, an election will be held, and that means another weekend during which it’ll be difficult for sexpats to find alcohol again. But the temporary lull that the military’s invoking of martial law will result in may provide both sides the time they need to find a peaceful resolution to the question of who will run the country the next time Bangkok sees a nine-tiered umbrella sorrowfully raised. I’d like to suggest the, now, obvious solution is staring Thailand in the face. If it’s good enough for the King of Pop, it should be good enough for the King of Thailand too. The eventual loss of their beloved ruler need not be an accepted, foregone conclusion any longer. And then we could all moonwalk down Soi Twilight in peace.

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